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Prediction for CME (2024-07-26T15:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-07-26T15:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32220/-1
CME Note: Very faint CME seen to the E in SOHO C2/C3, and better in STEREO COR2A until a data gap begins at 2024-07-26T17:09Z. The source for this CME is likely a very broad area of dimming spanning approximately S10E15 to S10E50 observed over the tight cluster of ARs 3767, 3766, 3765, and 3764 beginning around 2024-07-26T13:00Z in SDO AIA 193, appearing centered the most around S08E35 near AR 3765. Arrival signature: a likely combined shock of this CME and up to 3 following CMEs characterized by a sharp increase in B_total from ~5nT to ~13 and eventually to 15nT, fast fluctuation of magnetic field components, a jump in solar wind speed from 330 to 480 km/s and an increase in density from 6 to above 10 p/cc.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-07-29T23:20Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-29T15:44Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/32229/1
Model Inputs:
2024-07-26T21:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-1.0, Lat.=-5.0, Speed=646.0, HalfAngle=20.0, Time21.5=2024-07-27T00:52Z
2024-07-26T15:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-37.0, Lat.=0.0, Speed=328.0, HalfAngle=38.0, Time21.5=2024-07-27T01:21Z
2024-07-26T20:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-5.0, Lat.=-15.0, Speed=676.0, HalfAngle=42.0, Time21.5=2024-07-27T01:23Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-07-29T15:44Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =26.0 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.7
(kp)90=5
(kp)180=7

Other Location(s) Impact:
Lucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-30T20:34Z
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-28T14:07Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-29T10:16Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 65.20 hour(s)
Difference: 7.60 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M) on 2024-07-27T06:08Z

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